COVID-19: Suppression effect of mandatory BCG vaccination: Kyoto Unive, statistically verified
Kyoto Univ: Heart Future Research Center
Shinobu Kitayama : Professor, University of Michigan
On August 20, it was announced that “mandatory BCG vaccination may lead to a reduction in the spread of the new coronavirus.”
The relationship, which was not clear, was statistically verified.
As a result, it could be inferred that mass inoculation of BCG will suppress the new corona in the future.
Compare data from 130 countries:
Approximately 130 countries have data for the first 30 days of the new corona epidemic.
Comparisons were made between countries that required BCG vaccination up to 2000 and those that did not.
We focused on the rate of increase for a certain period in order to eliminate the effects of bias in infection reports in each country.
Results of comparative analysis:
The increase rate of infected and dead people is
The rate of increase in BCG mandated countries was clearly low, as was the first 15 days.
This result is presumed to be “the effect of collective immunity by the majority BCG inoculation, and a large effect cannot be expected by inoculating BCG only for individuals”.
Nikkan Kogyo Shimbun
https://www.nikkan.co.jp/articles/view/00568630
Mandated Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination predicts flattened curves for the spread of COVID-19
Martha K. Berg*, Qinggang Yu, Cristina E. Salvador, Irene Melani, Shinobu Kitayama*
Science Advances 05 Aug 2020:
Vol. 6, no. 32, eabc1463
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abc1463
Abstract
Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination
may reduce the risk of a range of infectious diseases, and if so, it could protect against coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).
mandated BCG vaccination until 2000
Here, we compared countries that mandated BCG vaccination until at least 2000 with countries that did not.
the rate of the day-by-day increase
To minimize any systematic effects of reporting biases, we analyzed the rate of the day-by-day increase in both confirmed cases (134 countries) and deaths (135 countries) in the first 30-day period of country-wise outbreaks.
The 30-day window was adjusted to begin at the country-wise onset of the pandemic.
Linear mixed models
revealed a significant effect of mandated BCG policies on the growth rate of both cases and deaths after controlling for median age, gross domestic product per capita, population density, population size, net migration rate, and various cultural dimensions (e.g., individualism).
Our analysis suggests that mandated BCG vaccination can be effective in the fight against COVID-19.
https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/6/32/eabc1463.full
BCG-induced trained immunity: can it offer protection against COVID-19? | Nature Reviews Immunology