China’s shipbuilding industry: boasts 500 times the production capacity of the United States!
・An easy-to-understand explanation of the reasons for the decline of the US shipbuilding industry
・China’s dominance in shipbuilding has caused the US navy to fall to hell
Summary from an article published by the Global Institute for China Studies.
President Trump: Policy Speech:
On March 5, President Trump emphasized that he would revive the US shipbuilding industry.
China currently has 500 times the shipbuilding production capacity of the US.
1. Why has the US shipbuilding industry declined so much?
2. Can tariffs and sanctions fill the gap?
President Trump’s aspirations for shipbuilding:
In his policy speech, Trump emphasized his aspirations for strengthening the shipbuilding industry.
1. To strengthen defense, he will revive the US shipbuilding industry in commercial and military shipbuilding.
2. The White House will establish a new Bureau of Shipbuilding and will provide special tax incentives.
The United States should be aware that its shipbuilding industry is in a state of ruin.
China’s share in the global shipbuilding industry is expanding rapidly:
1. China’s share has expanded from 5% in 2000 to more than 50% by 2023.
2. In the future, taxes will be imposed on Chinese-made ships in the form of tariffs and port fees.
The United States will strengthen sanctions against China, concluding that China has committed fraud.
Reasons for the decline of the American shipbuilding industry:
The decline of the U.S. shipbuilding industry began in the 1980s as part of the “hollowing out of industry.”
1. In 1981, the Reagan administration abolished the commercial shipbuilding subsidy system for U.S. shipyards.
2. The shipbuilding industry laid off 40,000 workers and the entire industry collapsed.
US shipping companies’ ocean-going merchant ships: Zero orders:
1980: 62 ocean-going merchant ships ordered.
1981: Decreased to 46 ships, 1982: Decreased to 35 ships.
1983: Decreased to 21 ships, 1984: Decreased to 13 ships.
In 1988, when the Reagan administration ended, it finally went to “zero”.
US Navy battleship construction: Lack of personnel and construction technology
There is a separate budget for the US Navy’s battleships.
1. However, there is a shortage of US shipbuilding engineers, and the construction technology level is low.
2. Even the construction level of the latest aircraft carriers is questionable in terms of quality and performance.
Even if high tariffs or sanctions are imposed, the US shipbuilding industry will not revive.
Current state of the global shipbuilding industry: UNCTAD 2023 statistics:
Next, let’s consider the current state of the global shipbuilding industry.
1. China’s total shipbuilding tonnage is 32.86 million tons.
2. The total tonnage of the United States is 64,800 tons.
China’s shipbuilding production capacity is 507 times that of the United States.
Changes in shipbuilding tonnage in the United States, China, Japan, and South Korea:
The United States (blue) has a low production volume, close to zero. .
1. South Korea (green) is surprisingly strong in shipbuilding.
2. China (red) has overtaken South Korea since 2017 and is leading the way.
3. Japan (purple) has been overtaken by both China and South Korea.
Share of new orders for ships in the world:
It is said that 90% of world trade is carried out by the shipping industry.
China Shipbuilding Industry Association: New Ship Orders in 2023
In 2023, China will account for 66.6% of the world’s new ship orders.
In 2024, China’s global share will rise to 74.1%.
VOA in the US: February 25th
“Implementing Section 301 will not benefit the US shipbuilding industry.” Reported the opinion.
1. Chinese-owned cargo ships and third-flag ships will be charged more than $1 million at ports in the US.
2. Chinese ships will unload their cargo at ports in Canada and Mexico and transport it overland to the US.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/articles/290abb186203ba10f84550bd5feb94567126a8a8
China: “Strategic cooperation between shipbuilding and steel”:
China’s national strategy is steadily implementing cooperation policies within China.
1. China’s superiority in shipbuilding will lead to a relative decline in the US naval power.
2. This is also closely related to the US’s demands for Japan’s defense budget.
Even if Trump 2.0 imposes a 25% tariff, the backbone of China’s manufacturing industry will not be shaken.
The two wheels of shipbuilding and steel: the importance of national support:
1. Shipbuilding is difficult without government support. It is not a business that can be built overnight.
3. If the steel industry does not flourish domestically, shipbuilding will basically not be viable.
This is because countries that rely on steel imports incur costs in “procuring thick plates for ship hulls.”
China’s huge plans: What is China’s national strategy?
1. On July 27, 2005, “Steel and shipbuilding formed a strategic cooperation consultation mechanism.”
2. In 2006, the mid- to long-term development plan for the shipbuilding industry (2006-2015) was announced.
3. In November 2019, China Shipbuilding Corporation and China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation merged to become China Shipbuilding Corporation.
4. September 2022, “2022 Shipbuilding and Steel Matching Conference”
5. December 2023, “China Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC) and Baowu Steel Group Form Cooperation Framework”
6. October 2024, “China Ocean Shipping Corporation (COSCO) and China Shipbuilding Corporation Form Cooperation Framework”
Crude steel production in the U.S., China, Japan, India and Russia: (1969-2023)
While China’s steel is growing, the U.S. is at the bottom.
American Iron and Steel Institute: 2024 data:
It’s obvious. U.S. steel production has been sluggish for many years.
1. In 2024, U.S. steel production is 23% dependent on imports.
2. The top steel importing countries are “Canada, Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Vietnam, and Japan,” in that order.
U.S. “Shipbuilding and Steel Industry Cooperation”:
1. The US government has no clear policy to support the US shipbuilding industry.
2. If the US relies on steel imports, the shipbuilding industry will not grow.
3. There is a massive shortage of shipbuilding and steel engineers in the US.
With a “national strategy that does not link shipbuilding and the steel industry,” even if the “Shipbuilding Bureau” is established, it will be difficult for the shipbuilding industry to revive.
https://news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/articles/c7a22ea7a1fca345359ba5f8f9b87b8c0614c053