Japan: Korea’s export control review: Korea Research Institute, GDP down 2.2 points
July 12, 2019
Korea Economic Research Institute:
On July 10, in response to the operation review measures of Japan’s export control system, we held an emergency seminar “Influence and solution measures of Japan export control system operation review” in Seoul.
Hana Financial Management Research Institute:
At the seminar, Hana Financial Management Research Institute: Lee Joo-wan, researcher, said, “If Japanese semiconductor materials are not approved for export to Korea, it will affect the entire Korean industry.”
Semiconductor Industry Characteristics:
Even slight differences in raw materials affect semiconductor failure
Impossible to convert 100% to alternative materials from Japan
Negative view that conversion to domestic production is also difficult
Korea Economic Research Institute:
Cho Kyung-Yop, senior researcher, simulated the economic impact of trade friction between Japan and Korea.
If there is a 30% shortage of semiconductor materials due to measures in Japan,
Korea’s GDP: down 2.2 points,
Japan’s GDP: 0.04 points down and analysis
If Korea takes countermeasures,
Korea’s GDP: down 3.1 points,
Japan’s GDP decreased by 1.8 points, both countries increasing losses
In addition, Cho chief researcher stressed that “If the trade friction between Japan and South Korea expands, it will most benefit for China.”
“The GDP growth in the US is at a slight level (0.03 points), but China’s GDP will increase by 0.5 to 0.7 points,” he said.
In particular, in the case of the electric and electronic industries led by Korea and Japan, Korea’s production is down 20.6% and Japan’s production is down 15.5%, while China’s is up 2.1% and its monopoly position is shifted to China.
-JETRO
https://www.jetro.go.jp/biznews/2019/07/dbbf385b468e3b7f.html