AI semiconductor embargo: Big blow to China’s Tencent and Baido
-The US re-strengthens export regulations on AI semiconductors-
-NVIDIA, dark clouds over AMD’s Chinese hegemony-
We bring you a summary from Toyo Keizai Online.
U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS)
The government has decided to tighten restrictions on exports of cutting-edge semiconductor technology to China.
On October 17th, the “High Performance Semiconductors” and “Export Control Regulations for Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment” announced one year ago were revised.
This is a review of regulatory standards with AI semiconductors in mind
BIS semiconductor regulatory standards review:
Review of the previous 2022 BIS Export Administration Regulations.
Previously, regulated semiconductors were determined based on their computing power and data transmission speed.
Computing power = 4800TOPS (4800 trillion times/s) or more
or
Data transmission speed = 600GB/s or more
Exports of semiconductors to China have been prohibited in principle.
NVIDIA AI semiconductors:
In the past, Nvidia and others have used methods to circumvent U.S. export regulations (speed restrictions).
1. Computing power is set to the maximum limit of regulations.
2. Slightly reduce the transmission speed from the upper limit,
Developed a “special specification chip” for the Chinese market. We have continued to export to China.
“Special specification chips” subject to embargo:
BIS revised export control regulations:
BIS has changed its export control standard to “Total Processing Performance.”
This will block the export of special edition chips to China.
NVIDIA’s sense of crisis:
Export of special specification chips to China is prohibited.
Nvidia expressed its sense of crisis in a document filed with the SEC dated October 17th.
Impact of special chip ban:
The impact of BIS’s new regulations is
1. Not only AI semiconductors A800 and H800,
2. Even high-end GPU RTX 4090 (game image processing).
Review of new product development:
NVIDIA will review its new product development schedule due to changes in regulatory standards.
Decrease in existing customers in China:
Losing business with existing customers in China due to changes in regulatory standards.
Additionally, the risk of a decline in sales volume is unavoidable.
A blow to Chinese tech companies
Tightening regulations from the US government will force a review of China’s high-tech business strategy.
This will be a major blow to Chinese high-tech companies competing to expand AI computing power.
Counterpoint: Report released in August
Major companies such as Tencent and online search giant Baidu.
He had purchased large quantities of NVIDIA’s special edition chip, the A800.
NVIDIA special edition chip:
A Chinese semiconductor industry official commented on an interview with Caixin.
If supply stops, it will directly damage the development of Chinese companies’ AI businesses.