Ukraine: Drone attack on Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant?
・Kurchatov’s Kursk nuclear power plant is the main target
・Russia to report damage situation to IAEA
Summary from Reuters.
Russian President Putin:
On August 22, Ukraine attempted to attack Russia’s Kursk nuclear power plant.
Putin condemned the attack and reported the situation to the IAEA.
Situation report to IAEA:
At a high-level meeting on the situation in Russia’s border regions,
Putin said, “The enemy attempted to attack the nuclear power plant at night.”
The IAEA explained that it would send experts to investigate after receiving the report from Russia.
However, Russia has not provided details of the situation or supporting evidence for its claims.
Acting Governor Smirnov of Kursk Oblast in western Russia:
He told Putin that the situation at the Kursk nuclear power plant is currently “stable.”
133,190 people have been evacuated in Kursk Oblast.
Reuters was unable to independently confirm the attack.
Cross-border attack on Kursk Oblast
On the 6th of this month, Ukraine launched a cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk Oblast.
1. Thousands of Ukrainian troops crossed Russia’s western border.
2. Heavy fighting continues 30km from the Kursk nuclear plant.
IAEA Director General Grossi:
On August 9, he called on Ukraine to exercise maximum restraint to avoid a nuclear accident at Kursk.
Currently, two of the reactors at the Kursk nuclear plant are shut down and two are operational.
https://jp.reuters.com/markets/commodities/QE6CKWTM7FJLBBPEH7XZ37BJZQ-2024-08-22/
Kursk attack: What is Ukraine’s key aim?
Summary from JBpress.
Cross-border attack on Russia’s Kursk:
1. On August 6, Ukraine launched a cross-border attack from Sumy, Ukraine, into Kursk Oblast, Russia.
2. This is the first time that Ukrainian regular troops have invaded Russian territory since the Russian military invaded Ukraine.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Shirsky:
On August 12, the results of the Kursk offensive were a controlled area of 1,000 km2 and 74 residential districts.
1. The Ukrainian military has already begun digging trenches in the controlled areas.
2. In the event of a counterattack by the Russian military, they will prepare a defensive posture to thwart the counterattack.
President Putin’s response:
Russia will divert and redeploy 10-11 battalions, 4,000-6,000 troops, to Kursk.
1. A “counter-terrorism system” has been introduced in Bryansk, Kursk, and Belgorsky Oblasts.
2. However, this force is not enough to destroy the cross-border Ukrainian forces.
3. Ukrainian special forces have already infiltrated and are interfering.
Attack on Kursk: First target is Kurchatov
Ukraine is attacking with three brigades in the initial attack on Kursk.
The attack axes are the right auxiliary attack, the left auxiliary attack, and the center main attack.
Right auxiliary attack force:
The intermediate target is the town of Suzha, and the occupied area is expanding further eastward.
1. Suzha has a gas pipeline measuring station.
2. Gas can be extracted and the amount of transportation can be controlled.
Left auxiliary attack force:
The intermediate target has been occupied.
After that, the occupied area will be expanded and the advance will be made westward.
Ukrainian main attack axis:
1. Ukrainian main attack axis has already advanced 30 km.
2. Kurchatov is 45 km away.
The town of Kurchatov is home to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
Current status of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant:
This plant is getting old.
1. The new Kursk Nuclear Power Plant 2 is under construction and is scheduled to be commissioned in 2025.
2. Kursk Nuclear Power Plant 2 is known as Russia’s most powerful nuclear power plant and is the newest.
It is clear that the main direction of the Ukrainian military’s attack is aimed at the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
45 km to the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant:
1. Ukraine is now only 45 km away from Russia’s Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
2. If it can be occupied, it will be possible to take control of the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
Even at this stage, Ukraine can launch rocket attacks with its HIMARS (range 45-60 km).
Russia’s occupation of the Ukrainian nuclear power plant:
1. Ukraine has not been able to retake its own nuclear power plant.
2. It has not been able to stop Russia’s malicious actions within the facility.
Russia is well aware of the dangers of nuclear power plants and has been spiking threats.
470km to Moscow:
1. It is about 470km from the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant to Moscow.
2. It is roughly the same distance as the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant to Kyiv.
If it were to explode, both capitals would be affected by the same nuclear material.
Using the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant as a nuclear deterrent:
1. At the beginning of its invasion, Russia temporarily occupied the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, which was undergoing decommissioning.
2. This raised concerns that radiation would spread in Ukraine.
Currently, Russia is occupying the Zaporizhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine.
Russia’s “nuclear threats”:
1. In the Ukrainian war, a nuclear-armed country invaded a country without nuclear weapons.
2. Ukraine has been “threatened to use nuclear weapons” from Russia.
If Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons, Ukraine may attack the Kursk nuclear power plant.