China: Coal for electricity on hand, for 2 weeks only: Sinolink estimates
-Factory interruption is “unavoidable”-
China’s coal inventory:
“Whether coal inventories can last for the next two weeks”
“Analysis that only that amount remains” was published.
September 29
Hong Kong SCMP:
Cited an analysis by Sinolink Securitys.
As of September 21,
Six major power plants in China
The stockpile of coal is only 11.13 million tons.
“It’s the amount of whether we can withstand the next 15 days,” It said.
Chinese authorities’ regulations:
Power plants in China are in the off-season
Worth using for more than 20 days,
Coal must be stockpiled.
However, this has not been met.
Especially from the date of reporting
Now that eight days have passed
The situation is getting worse.
Shinolink:
From this month to February next year, coal for power generation in China will be
It is expected that 222 to 344 million tons will be insufficient.
China’s coal power supply:
Power supply from coal accounts for more than 70% of domestic power generation.
Causes of power shortage:
One is that economic sanctions on Australia have stopped importing coal for power generation from Australia.
This has greatly upset the supply and demand of coal.
This time, China’s power shortage is due to a drop in the utilization rate of coal power plants.
Coal supply restrictions due to decarbonization:
From January this year
“Restriction on coal supply due to strengthening decarbonization”
“Increased demand for coal due to economic resumption” overlapped.
Coal prices are up 30% compared to a year ago,
Profitability of Chinese power plants deteriorates,
Not enough electricity can be produced.
Deterioration of power plant profitability:
Power plants are suffering from operating losses, and many power plants are reluctant to increase power supply.
Coal prices are rising to unprecedented levels.
Electric power company selling price:
On the other hand, most of the prices for customers of electric power companies are controlled by the government.
World view of Toshiyoshi Katsumata
http://hisayoshi-katsumata-worldview.com/archives/27542128.html
China power crisis: thermal coal inventory nears record low as country suffers worst outages in a decade
State media now says 20 out of 31 provincial jurisdictions have implemented electricity-rationing measures since mid-September
Total coal inventory at China’s major power-generation groups is just 11.31 million tonnes – enough to meet demand for only about two weeks
Sinolink Securities also estimates that, from September to February, China will need 1.85 billion tonnes of thermal coal, but projections indicate it will fall short by 222 million to 344 million tonnes – or about 12 to 19 per cent less than is needed.
– from industrial powerhouses in the south such as Guangdong to the rust belt in the northeast –
have rolled out electricity-rationing measures in recent weeks, triggering widespread alarm among much of the population and plunging the nation’s industrial sector into chaos.
South China Morning Post