台美：「快速反擊」無人機新戰略

The Russian Navy’s Black Sea Fleet:

The Black Sea Fleet has made a name for itself in military history.

However, the recent invasion of Ukraine:

1. The fleet lost one-third of its fighting power in a drone attack by the Ukrainian military.

2. It was forced to relocate its home port in Crimea.

This is said to be a “revolutionary tactic” that will significantly change the conventional combat system.

The US military’s new drone attack system:

The US military has systematically combined these drone attacks.

To wipe out Chinese ships in the Taiwan Strait:

1. In the event of a Taiwan emergency, target Chinese ships crossing the Taiwan Strait.

2. A system is being built to retaliate against China with drone attacks at sea.

It will take time to respond to China’s Taiwan drone operations.

It will be extremely difficult for China to ‘make it by 2027’.

In fact, 2027 marks the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese military.

Ukrainian Navy: Unmanned Surface Vehicle “Sea Baby”

The Ukrainian Navy has deployed an unmanned surface vessel in combat.

Features of “Sea Baby”:

1. It is only 6m long and 60cm high above sea level.

2. It can carry up to 850kg of explosives and travel up to 1000km.

Ukrainian government official: Expert analysis

Neutralizing the Russian Black Sea Fleet:

The unmanned surface vessel sank and damaged one-third of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

As a result, the Russian Black Sea Fleet no longer has the power to pose a threat to the Ukrainian port of Odessa.

1. The power of the unmanned weapon has secured the shipping route from Ukraine.

2. Ukraine will be able to export more grain.

US Indo-Pacific Command: Commander Samuel Paparo

In an interview with The Washington Post at the Singapore Asia Security Summit in May,

he said, “The US will send a large number of unmanned weapons to the battlefield to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Urban weapons will thwart China’s first wave of invasion and buy time for reinforcements from the US and its allies.

US Department of Defense: Replicator Program

The US Department of Defense will spend $1 billion (157 billion yen) on the Replicator Program.

The importance of securing a large number of drones:

The Washington Post pointed out problems in the results of a Taiwan Strait war game (conducted by a US think tank).

If Taiwan cannot secure a large number of drones quickly,

1. A large number of US military assets (navy, air force) will be seriously damaged.

2. US allies such as Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines will also be drawn into the conflict, leading to an expansion of the war.

Selling Switchblades to Taiwan:

On June 17, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA) announced that it would sell 1,000 Switchblade 300s and 1,000 Altius 600Ms to Taiwan.

Attacking Chinese ships with suicide drones:

If China invades Taiwan, they will launch a large number of drones to attack the ships.

Attacking from Kinmen Island in Taiwan:

1. Taiwan will launch drones from Kinmen Island, which is close to the Chinese coast.

2. They will be able to deliver direct damage to Chinese military facilities and port facilities.

National Institute for Defense Studies, Ministry of Defense of Japan:

Russia’s failure to invade Ukraine has influenced the strategy of the People’s Liberation Army of China.

This time, the shock of Russia’s failed attack on the People’s Liberation Army of China is extremely large.

PLA strategy:

The PLA had envisioned the same strategy as the Russian military against Taiwan.

1. However, China cannot win by attacking only with remote-controlled weapons.

2. It is necessary to send large-scale forces to Taiwan and prepare for urban warfare.

This is the lesson that the Chinese People’s Liberation Army learned from the Ukraine war.

Nikkei Newspaper: (April 2nd)

China to prepare for invasion of Taiwan by 2027:

According to US analysis, ‘China will be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027’

However, it will take time for China to ‘re-prepare in light of Russia’s failure’.

Sugiura says, “China will not be able to re-prepare by 2027.”

Ukraine’s drone development initiative:

It was not the Ukrainian Navy that promoted the introduction of Ukrainian surface drones.

It is noteworthy that the development was led by ‘security authorities and special forces.’

Learn the strategy of the Ukraine war:

The outnumbered Ukrainian military is using its wisdom to assemble drone attacks and fight.

The US military will use this living know-how in its future drone strategy.

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