中國經濟衰退：直接打擊德國和美國
・習近平：通貨緊縮出口的負面影響
・德國和美國遭受重大損失
我們為您帶來了《Money Gendai》上發表的文章摘要。
Economic downturn affects Chinese New Year:
In China, ”9 billion people migrate during the Spring Festival, the highest ever”, which is an inflated figure.
Sham calculation method:
Spring Festival began in China on February 10th. The impact of the economic downturn is significant.
This time, the Chinese government’s calculation method includes private car transportation.
Under the conventional method, only 1.8 billion people were served by public transportation.
This is a 14% decrease from the previous year’s forecast of 2.1 billion people.
Lowest record in Chinese private survey:
New home sales in January were down 48% from the previous year. Recorded the lowest level in recent years.
Even if regulations on home purchases are eased, many people say that it is impossible to invest in China.
“China selling” on global stock markets:
Stock investors continue to sell China.
1. Chinese sovereign wealth fund starts ‘supporting the purchase of Chinese ETFs’
2. Implementation of ‘defensive measures to prohibit short selling’ in the stock market
The Chinese government is doing its best to “temporarily stop the decline in Chinese stocks.”
China’s ‘deflationary exports’ are becoming more active:
Excess domestic inventory is sold overseas at low prices.
China’s “deflationary export” movement is becoming more active.
Low price export of Chinese steel products:
Europe and the United States are suffering from low-price exports of Chinese steel products.
1. Last year’s steel export volume increased significantly by 36.2% compared to the previous year.
2. However, the value of steel exports fell by 8.3% from the previous year.
Chinese-made EVs are also exported at low prices:
Even for EVs made in China, exports at low prices have become commonplace.
However, the side effects for China are significant.
1. Trade disputes with Western countries further intensify
2. China’s small and medium-sized enterprises face existential crisis
Only exports to Russia are doing well:
Last year, exports to Russia increased by 46.9% compared to the previous year.
Last year, the share of Chinese-made cars in Russia reached 49%.
The prolonged economic slump in China is not a “fire on the other side” for other countries.
Germany most at risk:
Germany has been the most affected by the Great Recession in China in the world.
Deutsche Bundesbank (Central Bank):
January 24th, if China falls into an economic crisis,
1. It was estimated that the German economic growth rate would decline by 1.5%.
2. Germany is predicted to experience negative growth for the second year in a row.
The Great Recession in China also hit the United States:
The United States cannot ignore the slump in China’s economy either.
National Economic Council (NEC): Chairman Brainard
On January 22nd, She stated that the company was not affected by the economic slowdown in China.
Apple’s 4Q results:
Last year, 4ℚ’s sales in China plummeted by 13% compared to the previous year.
1. China risks are not unrelated to the US economy either.
2. The negative impact on the US commercial real estate market is of greatest concern.
Impact that began to reach Japan:
In Japan, China-related companies are also beginning to be affected.
80% of 21 Japanese companies saw a decline in profits:
Of the 21 Chinese-related companies in Japan, 18 saw a decline in profits for the April-December period last year.
1. Semiconductor Murata Manufacturing: Net profit falls by 18%
2. Robot Fanuc: Net profit falls by 24%
3. TOTO housing equipment: Net profit fell by 27%.
Chinese-related companies are pessimistic, saying, “There will be no V-shaped recovery like before.”
China’s real estate recession weighs on the world:
US commercial real estate loans:
CMBS defaults have reignited concerns about a chain failure of US banks.
Chinese real estate developers may face further bankruptcy.
Chinese real estate suffering from excessive debt:
Hekjuen was forced to sell its domestic and overseas assets.
1. China has begun selling off its overseas real estate holdings (Toyo Keizai, February 8)
2. The U.S. real estate market will worsen due to Chinese companies’ fire sales.
Further stress will be placed on the US financial system.
There is a high possibility that the strong US economy will give way.